4.06.2006

Iran in a Nutshell

Iran successfully tested its second new torpedo recently, the latest weapon to be unveiled during war games in the Gulf, that the military said are aimed at preparing the country's defenses against the United States.

Iran's latest tests are a warning to the US and the world. Iran can defend itself. Iran will not give up easily. Any military action against Iran will lead to many, many casualties. This is the message behind the tests, the military games, and the speeches.

It is widely believed that Iran's nuclear program is not entirely meant for peaceful purposes. The options, as far as attempting to stop Iran's dangerous nuclear dabbling, are outlined below.

One option is to do nothing. Another option involves economic sanctions. Then there's multilateral diplomacy with or without military action. Military intervention itself can be limited to air strikes on strategic targets or it can be a full-scale invasion.

Doing nothing is an option, but one that is most easily dismissed given Iran's penchant for supporting anti-Israeli militant groups, and it's ability to influence events in Iraq and the surrounding region.

Diplomacy, while preferable to the use of military force, may not work, as Britain, France, and Germany have found to their dismay. Diplomatic efforts under the auspices of the UN face opposition from Russia and China.

Military action would most likely lead to disruption in oil supplies and send oil prices skyrocketing. Supplies are tight and production is at or near capacity. Also, the US forces are stretched by operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, and domestic opinion is generally against military involvement in Iran, especially if it leads to heavy casualties and additional financial burden. Any sort of military intervention then is likely to need military and financial support from the Europeans and the rest of the world.

An attack on Iran, it can be argued, will be painted as an attack on Islam, creating more tensions and inflaming anti-western hatred in the Middle East. There is a distinct possibility that any western involvement in military action against Iran will make the participating countries more vulnerable to terror attacks.

The issue is complex, the situation tense, and the repercussions of any action (or inaction) are likely to be grave. Ideally, the first step in dealing with Iran would be unanimous censure from the Security Council. Failure to act could lead to a disastrous nuclear confrontation in the Middle East, a situation that most nations would not want to be responsible for. This point made through a combination of public and private maneuvering may just convince Russia and China to support a censure motion. The GCC and OIC must condemn Iran – a nuclear Iran can and might just be tempted to destabilize the entire region and the hostilities might not be reserved for Israel alone.

Economic sanctions are not usually very effective as the evidence in Iraq has shown but sanctions might be preferable to military action. As a last resort, bombing of strategic facilities should be considered. (See Osirak.)

(Of course, it would help if Washington didn’t promise nuclear technology to India or any other nation, while trying to prevent others from obtaining or developing similar capabilities.)

Update:

Bolton Hints at Other Options for Iran.

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